The fukuleaks.org/web team has been tracking tropical storms that may approach the main island of Honshu in the event that they might cause problems at Fukushima. Thunder and Majj have both been reporting the progress of Talas as it approaches Japan. Check back for updates as we know more.
Thunder’s report from this morning:
Talas has finally made a move, now tracking northwest as predicted, this makes forecasters a little more confident in its position and crossing point of Japan. Models are still very jumpy though they do provide a large spread on crossing location, the Latest JTWC track map represents close to consensus crossing the system over the coast of Tokai (link to JTWC: www.usno.navy.mil ). The modeled tracks though indicate an interesting spread, NOGAPS is the western lier crossing the storm over the coast at southern Kyushu while GFS ensemble(multi run compiled data model) is the eastern lier crossing Talas over the coast of the Chiba peninsula east of Tokyo.
A quote from www.eosnap.com on Talas’ wind field “The area of 30kt winds or more ranges up to 600 km (370 mi) from the center and the area of 50kt winds or more ranges up to 190 km (120 mi) from the center“…. it’s big….enough said! In the end doesn’t matter really where it ends up, winds will affect much of Japan, the 72hr wind field @TSR shows the entirety of the situation as forecast( Link: www.tropicalstormrisk.com ).
Ok to talk frankly on the situation, it’s obviously not good for Japan or the Fuku NPP to have this sort of thing rolling by, it’s will cause trouble and more loss to a nation that’s already lost so much this year. What it won’t do is blow reactor buildings over(don’t quote me there-remember TEPCO built these things), it will however disrupt any efforts being made to bring the situation under control, depending on how it plays out if forecasting prevails they could see winds above 30kts for 24-36 hours. Depending when they call work off for safety(what wind speed) or if they pull down cranes and concrete pumpers for saftey it could lead to a pretty big stoppage of work!
Secondly is the rain, current modeling isn’t great, I am not overly trusting of the current representation provided, my concerns with it have to do with the system transitioning to extra-tropical system meaning it will start to dump it’s rain and fast. Current modeling indicates 200mm+ for Fukushima but it could indeed be much worse than that…..in the end though, weather is weather and 72 hours may as well be an eternity but things are definitely starting to close in on a confident forecast period for the system!
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