Hokkido University Experts Say 9.0 Quake Highly Probably – With Translation of Text

This has been going around various websites concerning the probability of another 9.0 quake. Hokkiado University experts are saying a new quake could come in December or January based on their findings. The English translation below. Japanese translation in easier to translate charactersets at the end of the post. Graphic from the original article and the original itself can be found here.


Have a higher probability of a magnitude 9 earthquake once again

To announce the growing possibility of M9 earthquakes seismic waves echo back from the observed VHF.Echo began to be observed in seismic stations Erimo channels from 89.9MHz June 27, 2010 date back about 8 months before the earthquake off the coast of the northeastern Pacific Ocean on March 11, 2011.This frequency echoes from seismic monitoring stations Nakashibetsu several other stations in the station’s frequency is Nakashibetsu eastern Hokkaido was not confirmed that. The same frequency Kuzumaki station, 種市, Wajima, a small echo amplitude and Kobe earthquakes are located (-100 ~-110dB-up 3 4dB) from the station or not any audio signal is unknown, considered a strong possibility of the Tohoku region Kuzumaki and probably 種市. This earthquake lasted eight months and echoes, in January 2011 occurred M9.0 foreshock of M7.3 occurred the day after the July 3 finally weakened. That the M7.3 foreshock has revealed that very small group in the b value of 0.5 aftershocks that follow. However, M9 has occurred during the verification process. The total duration of the echo of the earthquake may have more than 200,000 minutes past the M8. Daily is shown in Figure echo duration from 01 earthquakes in January 2010.The horizontal axis of the month from 01 January 2010, the vertical axis of the echo duration earthquakes per day (minutes). After an M9.0, earthquake activity is a weak echo, and begin to revitalize the M7.0 earthquake occurred around Iwaki. We follow the course very similar to the situation observed in the second half of last year and now. The total duration of the echo to reach the earthquake reached 160,000 minutes. If you follow the same course as before the earthquake of March 11, if this still is estimated that the M9 class earthquake occurs again. Would be considered near the epicenter off the coast of southern Japan Trench off the southern part of Miyagi Prefecture, Ibaraki Prefecture. If it is a normal fault focal mechanisms is also considered a potential giant tsunami tsunami amplitude of fluctuations is greater vertical ocean crust.Generation time is probably spent in January from December 2012, just from the expected weakening of the seismic echo is probably difficult to pinpoint. Natural phenomena that trigger the occurrence of foreshocks and earthquake is also important to monitor the storm and tidal observations, such as words.Do not continue to go missing observations of VHF echoes the future earthquake, we will be updating as often as possible.

Japanese Translation with proper character:

VHF電磁波の地震エコー観測からふたたびM9地震が発生する可能性が高まっていることをお知らせします.2011年3月11日の 東北地方太平洋沖地震の前に8か月ほどさかのぼる2010年6月27日からえりも観測点において89.9MHzのチャンネルに地震エコーが観測 され始めました.この周波数は北海道東部中標津局の周波数ですが他の複数の観測点における監視から中標津局からの地震 エコーではないことが確認されました.同じ周波数の局は葛巻,種市,輪島,神戸などにありますが地震エコーの振幅が小さく (-100~-110dBから3-4dB上昇する)音声信号にならないのでどの局からかは不明ですが,おそらく東北地方の葛巻と種市の 可能性が強いと考えられます. この地震エコーは8ヶ月続き,2011年1月には弱くなりついに3月07日のM7.3の前震が発生後M9.0が発生しました.M7.3が前震 であることは,これに続く余震群のb値が0.5程度で極端に小さいことで判りました.しかし確認作業中にM9は発生しました. 地震エコーの総継続時間は20万分を越えてM8以上の可能性がありました.図は2010年01月01日からの地震エコーの日別継続 時間です.横軸は2010年01月01日からの月日,縦軸は1日毎の地震エコーの継続時間(分)です. M9.0の発生後,地震エコーの活動は弱かったのですが,いわきの地震M7.0が発生したころから再び活性化し始めま した.そして現在まで昨年後半に観測された状況と良く似た経過をたどっています.地震エコーの総継続時間は16万分に到 達しました.もしもこのまま3月11日の地震の前と同じ経過をたどるとすれば,再びM9クラスの地震が発生すると推定されます. 震央は宮城県南部沖から茨城県沖の日本海溝南部付近であろうと考えられます.震源メカニズムが正断層である場合には 海底地殻上下変動が大きいので津波の振幅が大きく巨大津波になる可能性も考えられます.発生時期は12月から2012年01月にかけて と考えられますが,地震エコーの衰弱からだけではピンポイントでの予想は難しいと思われます.前震の発生や地震をトリガー する自然現象,つまり磁気嵐や地球潮汐の観測などを監視していくことも重要です.  これからもVHF地震エコーの観測を欠測しないように継続していき,できるだけ頻繁に更新していくつもりです.

 

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